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Crisis
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2004-01-28 18:53:45-05
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Avian Flu Crisis Will Test Asian Economies
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As countries grapple with problem, how will this outbreak impact some of Asia?s ?star? economies?
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It seemed two weeks ago that everything was going his way. The ?his? in this instance being Thailand?s Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra. The Thai economy was sailing along at a 7 percent growth clip. It had just been announced that the value of his, rather his family's business empire, had just hit 10 percent of the entire Thai stock market. Two weeks down the road, the picture has changed. Although he told his functionaries to say Thai chickens were dying because of cholera and/or bronchitis, that line didn't hold and Thailand became the next Asian country to become victimized by avian flu. There are at least two confirmed deaths in Thailand, two boys who came in contact with dead chickens and probably a third, a 56-year-old farmer. On the political front, there are charges that the government attempted a cover-up and although Mr Thaksin's TRT party holds an absolute majority in the Parliament, a 'no confidence' debate is now in the cards. Thaksin's house of cards has collapsed. Now it appears that the economic outlook for Thailand and Vietnam, two of Asia's top economic performers last year, will be severely tested during the rest of 2004. In addition, the flu epidemic has hit Cambodia, South Korea, Japan, Taiwan and Indonesia. Thailand is the world's fourth largest poultry producer and it has already lost two of its biggest markets, the EU and Japan. The Thai government has pledged US$76 million in compensation to poultry producers, however, regaining the confidence of customers will be difficult. So far, nine million chickens have been slaughtered in Thailand and 1.8 million have been killed in South Korea. The Stock Exchange of Thailand continues to take declines as the news about the flu continues to dominate the headlines of Bangkok newspapers.
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